9321862 Gurr Since the end of the Cold War researchers and officials concerned with humanitarian crises have called for development of early warning systems to assist in planning for preventive diplomacy, humanitarian assistance and peace-keeping. But no one has yet developed or tested models that can be used to analyze how communal or other conflicts escalate into crises and violence. This research develops a social scientific basis for doing so, using results of the investigator's Minorities at Risk Project. Three high-priority tasks for further research are being carried out in this project: 1) Updating the Minorities at Risk data set with new and more precise information on about 280 politically-active communal groups for 1990-1993, including about 50 newly active groups not included in the earlier study. 2) Using the data to reestimate models of the cause s of Communal Conflict in the 1980s and early 1990s, including new measures of state coercion and international support, and improved indicators of group mobilization. These models will be used to generate short-term forecasts or risk assessments about which groups are likely to become involved in escalating conflict. 3) Identifying the conditions under which communal conflicts lead to gross human rights violations. This will be done by (1) specifying a model of the causes of coercive regime responses to communal challenges, and (2) testing it using data on three cases of protracted conflict over a fifteen year period. ***
