In collaboration with Robert Winkler of Duke University, this PI proposes to develop procedures using the copula approach in order to assess dependence. The situations in which this approach will be applied are expert knowledge ones in which the decision maker must consider a set of interrelated random variables. The research will involve the mathematical development and analysis of families of copulas and dependence measures, the design of assessment procedures, laboratory studies to test the ability of experts to understand the procedures, development of computational procedures, field studies with real-world knowledge-modeling applications, and the construction of protocols and general prescriptive recommendations for dependence assessment.
