Risk analysis is a formal method to assess the probabilities and consequences of hazards to human health and the environment. The assessment of probabilities and consequences is complicated, when little data exist, when models are inadequate, and when experts disagree. In these situations, risk analysts increasingly use formal processes for eliciting probabilities from groups of experts. The intention is to incorporate a broad spectrum of scientific opinions and to acknowledge and incorporate scientific uncertainties as well as scientific disagreements. This project will study how to best involve scientific experts with different approaches and different opinions in this process. The study will compare several methods of eliciting probabilities and consequences of risks from groups of experts, including eliciting them separately versus in groups and allowing disagreements versus forcing consensus. The study will be conducted by performing experiments both with engineering students and with experts in the field. The results should contribute substantially to improve the science and practice of risk assessment.
