The precise effect of incarceration on aggregate crime rates is under contention. While many claim that prison population growth and crime rates inversely related, others maintain that there is no effect of increasing incarceration because offenders are replaced by others. Other analysts argue that prison population growth actually generates crime by breaking sown important social networks or damaging the ability of individuals to participate in legitimate activities. This research tests these competing positions and develops a more textured understanding of the relationship between incarceration and crime. It improves upon the existing empirical literature in several ways. In contrast to previous efforts, this study: (1) permits the relationship between incarceration and crime to vary with the level of incarceration; (2) differentiates among the various uses for a prison cell; (3) recognizes that the flow of inmates into prison may have a different effect than the stock of current inmates; and (4) takes into account the other major correctional policies (probation and parole). In addition, the analysis profits from improved statistical approaches for cross-sectional time-series data: random effects and multi-level models. is possible that there is some truth.
Data will be compiled from the National Corrections Reporting Program, which collects individual level information from states on each admission to prison, each release from prison, and each release from parole. Additionally, crime rates collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigations will be augmented with supplemental information on probation and control variables from a variety of governmental sources. Special attention is paid to two issues of current policy relevance-s the effect on crime of incarcerating large numbers of drug offenders; and the disproportionate high imprisoned rates of African Americans and Hispanics relative to their number in the population.
