The purpose of this study is to identify drinking trajectories that characterize patterns of alcohol use and abuse from adolescence to young adulthood and to determine what individual and interpersonal factors are differentially associated with these various pathways. This age range was chosen in light of the extant literature indicating that the majority of alcohol-related problems begin prior to the mid-twenties and if problem drinking is to abate over time, such maturing out will occur prior to 30 years of age.
Three specific aims will guide this inquiry: a) to identify alcohol use trajectories that characterize the age range from adolescence to young adulthood; b) to examine the relationship between childhood risk factors and the course of alcohol use from adolescence to young adulthood; and c) to examine the association of each trajectory with adult transitions and psychosocial outcomes. As part of a major ongoing alcohol research project, lifetime drinking histories will be obtained from approximately 400 young adults 23 to 26 years of age. The data will be analyzed using Latent Class Analysis to establish drinking classes using two methods: 1) patterns of presence/absence of alcohol abuse/dependence over the full course of drinking history; 2) patterns of symptom endorsement each year. Childhood risk factors and adult correlates of each trajectory will be examined with the first type of data; predictors of transitions in drinking class from one year to another will be examined with the second. It is anticipated that identifying adult correlates, in addition to more distal childhood risk factors of drinking trajectories, will enhance understanding of alcohol course and facilitate interventions.
| Sartor, Carolyn E; Lynskey, Michael T; Heath, Andrew C et al. (2007) The role of childhood risk factors in initiation of alcohol use and progression to alcohol dependence. Addiction 102:216-25 |
