The proposed study will examine patterns of, and factors influencing, the transitions of older persons between different living arrangements within the community over time. Understanding factors influencing elderly living arrangements (e.g., living alone or with others) is of particular importance because independence in the community and the existence of others in the household can have an important influence on both the well-being of older persons and their subsequent use of long-term care services. While recent research has shed some light on factors associated with living arrangements, most of it has been limited to looking at a """"""""snapshot"""""""" at a single point in time. In reality, patterns of living arrangements among the elderly are continuing to shift, as the proportion living alone has been increasing. The proposed research will attempt to understand factors driving these shifts by examining the dynamic patterns of change in living arrangements being made by the community-resident elderly. The proposed study design combines parallel data from these sources: the Annual Housing Survey (and health supplement), the National Health Interview Survey (and residential mobility supplement) and the National Long Term Care Survey. Patterns of the transitions in living arrangements are profiled for both movers and non-movers. Multinomial logit analysis of discrete choice is then applied to evaluate the effects of income, disability, age and other personal characteristics on those decisions. The findings are applied in a """"""""simulation"""""""" framework to estimate differences in future patterns of living arrangements that would result under varying assumptions about longevity, health, and income.
