The overall objective of this grant is to develop and apply statistical methods in AIDS epidemiology. There are three specific objectives of this proposal. The first is to develop and compare different statistical methods and study designs for estimating current HIV incidence. One approach will be to investigate the use of diagnostic tests such as tests for p24 antigen or other markers to identify individuals in cross-sectional surveys who were recently infected. The work will entail a detailed analysis of the sources of uncertainty in estimates of HIV incidence using these approaches. These approaches for estimating HIV incidence will be compared to other approaches including cohort studies and backcalculation methods with respect to sources of uncertainty, precision of the estimates, sample size requirements and sensitivities to model assumptions. The methods will be used to estimate current HIV incidence rates in India, and in an inner city emergency department. The second objective is to develop statistical models and methods for studies of the preantibody (window) period, and in particular to estimate the duration of p24 antigenemia. New statistical methods will be developed and applied to the analysis of data from emergency department patients and plasma donors. The third objective is to generalize the method of backcalculation to account for changes in the AIDS surveillance definition, and in particular to account for the significant revision of the case definition in 1993. This work will include application of the methods to U.S. AIDS incidence data, detailed sensitivity analyses and quantification of the effects of model misspecification.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
5R01CA048723-09
Application #
2517560
Study Section
AIDS and Related Research Study Section 2 (ARRB)
Program Officer
Erickson, Burdette (BUD) W
Project Start
1988-04-01
Project End
1999-08-31
Budget Start
1997-09-01
Budget End
1999-08-31
Support Year
9
Fiscal Year
1997
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
Name
Johns Hopkins University
Department
Biostatistics & Other Math Sci
Type
Schools of Public Health
DUNS #
045911138
City
Baltimore
State
MD
Country
United States
Zip Code
21218
Magder, L; Brookmeyer, R (1993) Analysis of infectious disease data from partner studies with unknown source of infection. Biometrics 49:1110-6
Wang, M C; Brookmeyer, R; Jewell, N P (1993) Statistical models for prevalent cohort data. Biometrics 49:1-11
Law, C G; Brookmeyer, R (1992) Effects of mid-point imputation on the analysis of doubly censored data. Stat Med 11:1569-78
Brookmeyer, R (1991) Reconstruction and future trends of the AIDS epidemic in the United States. Science 253:37-42
Brookmeyer, R (1990) Statistical problems in epidemiologic studies of the natural history of disease. Environ Health Perspect 87:43-9
Brookmeyer, R; Liao, J G (1990) Statistical modelling of the AIDS epidemic for forecasting health care needs. Biometrics 46:1151-63
Brookmeyer, R; Liao, J G (1990) The analysis of delays in disease reporting: methods and results for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Am J Epidemiol 132:355-65
Brookmeyer, R; Damiano, A (1989) Statistical methods for short-term projections of AIDS incidence. Stat Med 8:23-34
Brookmeyer, R; Goedert, J J (1989) Censoring in an epidemic with an application to hemophilia-associated AIDS. Biometrics 45:325-35
Gail, M H; Brookmeyer, R (1988) Methods for projecting course of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic. J Natl Cancer Inst 80:900-11

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