It is planned to develop a theoretical model for the screening of chronic diseases in order to determine optimal periodic screening programs. The ideal optimal program specifies: the number of examinations, the age at which the first examination should start and the optimal inter-examination schedule. Optimal screening programs will be found for a general class of utility functions which is a function of the probabilities of: case detection at examination and that of being incident between examinations. The theory will be applied to determine the optimal screening exams for breast, cervix and colon cancer. The model is very general and will be applicable to other chronic and infectious diseases in which there is need for a program of periodic examinations. The economic consequences of applying these models to specific diseases are potentially very large. It is likely that it will result in considerable savings in cost and, at the same time, increase the efficacy of such programs.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
5R01CA057397-03
Application #
2098139
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (SSS (R7))
Project Start
1992-09-02
Project End
1996-08-31
Budget Start
1994-09-01
Budget End
1996-08-31
Support Year
3
Fiscal Year
1994
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
Name
Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
Department
Type
DUNS #
149617367
City
Boston
State
MA
Country
United States
Zip Code
02215
Parmigiani, Giovanni; Skates, Steven; Zelen, Marvin (2002) Modeling and optimization in early detection programs with a single exam. Biometrics 58:30-6