This is a renewal application to continue a research project on fertility and fertility change in Southeast Asia for an additional three years. The basic objectives of the project are to explain the course of fertility transitions in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) in the late twentieth century and to contribute to the unification of demographic transition theory. The analytical approach is based upon multilevel models of microdata census sample files that incorporate the contextual characteristics of provinces and individual level characteristics as determinants of fertility levels and fertility change. The contextual variables include empirical indicators of the status of women, the economic roles of children, infant mortality, and the timing of marriage. The proposed extension of the research will include additional contextual variables (agricultural population density and ethnicity), the development of new analytical models, and the broadening of the time frame of the study. In addition to the 1970 and 1980 censuses for each country, the proposed research will include earlier twentieth century censuses, recent mid-decade surveys, and the 1990 census for Thailand. The project will, also include 1990 census data from the other three countries, but funding is not requested for research with these data in this proposal. The comparative and longitudinal research design of this project will allow for the development and testing of models of cumulative change that complement the standard socioeconomic models of fertility determination.
| Hirschman, C; Guest, P (1990) Multilevel models of fertility determination in four Southeast Asian countries: 1970 and 1980. Demography 27:369-96 |
