The research will analyze components of change in nuptiality and fertility, based on data from the 1990, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2004 rounds of the National Survey on Family Planning, conducted by the Mainichi Newspapers of Japan. The proposed research has a methodological component as well as a substantive component. Methodological innovations include the following: (1) development of a multivariate method for analyzing the effects of predictor variables on both period and cohort life table measures of progression to first marriage; (2) development of a multivariate method for analyzing the effects of predictor variables on both period and cohort measures of the total fertility rate and the total marital fertility rate; (3) development of a multivariate method for calculating components of change in both period and cohort life table measures of progression to first marriage; and (4) development of a multivariate method for calculating components of change in both period a cohort measures of the total fertility rate and total marital fertility rate. The four methods are related, and they all utilize hazard regression. The substantive component of the research will involve application of these methods to analyze (1) factors affecting nuptiality and fertility in each of the survey rounds and (2) components of change in nuptiality and fertility between the surveys due to various demographic and socioeconomic factors. The research will build on previous published work by the investigators on nuptiality and fertility change in Japan. Expected output from the research is one paper to be presented at the 2006 annual meeting of the Population Association of America and one article in a major population journal (submitted for publication by the end of the grant).
| Retherford, Robert; Ogawa, Naohiro; Matsukura, Rikiya et al. (2010) Multivariate analysis of parity progression-based measures of the total fertility rate and its components. Demography 47:97-124 |
