Abstract

The broad, long-term objective is the development of a theory of infectious disease epidemiology, or theory of dependent happenings, that relates population dynamics of infectious disease to study design and analysis of observations on individuals.
The specific aims of this proposal are to develop methods for planning and evaluating interventions against malaria in the field taking into account . relevant differences between migration-induced and holoendemic malaria, . indirect effects on estimates of efficacy measures, . heterogeneities in vector and human host populations for interpreting outcome measures, and . extension of these methods where applicable to other infectious diseases, in particular dengue and other vector-borne diseases. The experimental design and methods consists of a theoretical part- . conceptual, mathematical and statistical development of efficacy and effectiveness parameters in based on robust transmission models, and . deterministic and stochastic computer simulations for sensitivity analysis of parameters and prediction- and an applied part- . in collaboration with the Malaria Branch, CDC, design and analysis of a population-based, cohort follow-up intervention study in a holoendemic area of Africa, and . in collaboration with members of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, design and analysis of a targeted intervention against migration-induced malaria in the Amazon.

  Funding Agency

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)
Type
First Independent Research Support & Transition (FIRST) Awards (R29)
Project #
5R29AI031057-03
Application #
3455769
Study Section
Epidemiology and Disease Control Subcommittee 2 (EDC)
Project Start
1991-04-01
Project End
1996-03-31
Budget Start
1993-04-01
Budget End
1994-03-31
Support Year
3
Fiscal Year
1993
Total Cost
Indirect Cost

  Institution

Name
Emory University
Department
Type
Schools of Dentistry
DUNS #
042250712
City
Atlanta
State
GA
Country
United States
Zip Code
30322

  Publications

Longini Jr, I M; Sagatelian, K; Rida, W N et al. (1998) Optimal vaccine trial design when estimating vaccine efficacy for susceptibility and infectiousness from multiple populations. Stat Med 17:1121-36
Halloran, M E; Struchiner, C J; Longini Jr, I M (1997) Study designs for evaluating different efficacy and effectiveness aspects of vaccines. Am J Epidemiol 146:789-803
Halloran, M E; Longini Jr, I M; Struchiner, C J (1996) Estimability and interpretation of vaccine efficacy using frailty mixing models. Am J Epidemiol 144:83-97
Efron, B; Halloran, E; Holmes, S (1996) Bootstrap confidence levels for phylogenetic trees. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 93:7085-90
Antia, R; Halloran, M E (1996) Recent developments in theories of pathogenesis of AIDS. Trends Microbiol 4:282-5
Halloran, M E; Struchiner, C J (1995) Causal inference in infectious diseases. Epidemiology 6:142-51
Noronha, C P; Struchiner, C J; Halloran, M E (1995) Assessment of the direct effectiveness of BC meningococcal vaccine in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a case-control study. Int J Epidemiol 24:1050-7
Devine, O J; Louis, T A; Halloran, M E (1994) Empirical Bayes methods for stabilizing incidence rates before mapping. Epidemiology 5:622-30
Longini Jr, I M; Halloran, M E; Haber, M et al. (1993) Measuring vaccine efficacy from epidemics of acute infectious agents. Stat Med 12:249-63
Halloran, M E (1993) Salmonella enteritidis infections in France and the United States: causes vs causal models. Am J Public Health 83:1667-9

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