The general objective of this project is to consider the utility of mechanistic models of tumor development and detection in analysis of the impact of breast cancer screening in population- based settings. A stochastic model of cancer screening we propose offers the following distinct advantages: 1. It provides a simple but still realistic description of cancer latency; 2. It can be generalized in various ways while retaining its basic structure; 3. It furnishes a biologically meaningful interpretation of data analyses; 4. It accommodates standard population-based statistical data; its implementation does not depend heavily on availability of the data yielded by screening trials; 5. Rigorous statistical methods are available for estimating model parameters; 6. It can be used for designing optimal strategies of cancer screening and surveillance. The model will be validated with data on breast cancer from the Utah Population Data Base and the Utah Cancer Registry. Using these resources we will obtain initial parameter values for a pertinent estimation algorithm designed for grouped data on breast cancer mortality provided by the National Center for Health Statistics. This two-step estimation procedure will be tested by computer simulations and analyses of epidemiological data. In addition, we will explore the utility of stochastic approximation techniques in estimation of model parameters within the microsimulation framework.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
3U01CA088177-05S1
Application #
6949219
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZCA1)
Program Officer
Feuer, Eric J
Project Start
2000-09-01
Project End
2005-08-31
Budget Start
2003-09-08
Budget End
2005-08-31
Support Year
5
Fiscal Year
2004
Total Cost
$70,200
Indirect Cost
Name
University of Rochester
Department
Biostatistics & Other Math Sci
Type
Schools of Dentistry
DUNS #
041294109
City
Rochester
State
NY
Country
United States
Zip Code
14627
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Hanin, Leonid G; Miller, Anthony; Zorin, A V et al. (2006) The University of Rochester model of breast cancer detection and survival. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr :66-78
Berry, Donald A; Cronin, Kathleen A; Plevritis, Sylvia K et al. (2005) Effect of screening and adjuvant therapy on mortality from breast cancer. N Engl J Med 353:1784-92
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