The major goals of this proposal are to develop and extend statistical models which are important in predicting the future incidence and mortality associated with breast cancer in the United States. The diagnosis, treatment and prevention of female breast cancer has been rapidly changing in the decade and shows every evidence of continuing to change. Our main thrust will be to estimate the impact of interventions on national statistics. The interventions will not only reflect current health behavior practice, but will reflect various scenarios if public health practices were to change. Among the problems which will be considered are: (1) to evaluate the relation between early detection and eventual mortality which considers competing risks; to predict the changing incidence patterns if more women participate in routine screening programs; to compare the trade- offs pertaining to both benefit and cost between optimal screening programs and recommended policies; to develop optimal screening programs for high risk sub-populations; to estimate the change in mortality if modern cancer treatment was routinely given to a higher proportion of the population; to use the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) and the Harvard Pilgrim Health Plan as a resource to gather data on diagnosis and staging currently not available; to investigate screening policies and their benefit for younger women; to estimate the impact of improved methods of diagnosis on incidence and mortality.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
5U01CA088270-04
Application #
6655576
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZCA1-SRRB-3 (M1))
Program Officer
Feuer, Eric J
Project Start
2000-09-01
Project End
2005-08-31
Budget Start
2003-09-01
Budget End
2005-08-31
Support Year
4
Fiscal Year
2003
Total Cost
$287,876
Indirect Cost
Name
Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
Department
Type
DUNS #
076580745
City
Boston
State
MA
Country
United States
Zip Code
02215
Alagoz, Oguzhan; Berry, Donald A; de Koning, Harry J et al. (2018) Introduction to the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Breast Cancer Models. Med Decis Making 38:3S-8S
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Lee, Sandra J; Zelen, Marvin (2008) Mortality modeling of early detection programs. Biometrics 64:386-95
Lee, Sandra; Zelen, Marvin (2006) A stochastic model for predicting the mortality of breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr :79-86
Berry, Donald A; Cronin, Kathleen A; Plevritis, Sylvia K et al. (2005) Effect of screening and adjuvant therapy on mortality from breast cancer. N Engl J Med 353:1784-92
Shen, Yu; Zelen, Marvin (2005) Robust modeling in screening studies: estimation of sensitivity and preclinical sojourn time distribution. Biostatistics 6:604-14
Lee, Sandra; Huang, Hui; Zelen, Marvin (2004) Early detection of disease and scheduling of screening examinations. Stat Methods Med Res 13:443-56
Hu, Ping; Zelen, Marvin (2004) Planning of randomized early detection trials. Stat Methods Med Res 13:491-506
Zelen, Marvin (2004) Forward and backward recurrence times and length biased sampling: age specific models. Lifetime Data Anal 10:325-34
Lee, S J; Zelen, M (2003) Modelling the early detection of breast cancer. Ann Oncol 14:1199-202

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