? ? The proposed study is a continuation of a project to develop a comprehensive model of population trends in lung cancer. The model delivers estimates of the impact of cancer control interventions on observed trends in incidence and/or mortality; plausible ranges of estimates for the extent to which recommended interventions are having their expected population impact; the potential impact of new interventions on future national lung cancer trends; and the impact of targeted cancer control interventions on population outcome. ? ? The current project model is an adaptation of the Micro-simulation Screening ANalysis (MISCAN) simulation model that includes the Moolgavkar model on multistage carcinogenesis. The Moolgavkar model links exposure to risk factors to risk of lung cancer over time. The proposed project will extend our modeling effort to include explicitly the step from smoking-related interventions to expected level of exposure lo tobacco smoke. With this extension and after finishing the model development and validation, the project will perform evaluations across the full spectrum of possible interventions, including behavioral risk factors related to smoking and diet, early detection strategies, and various treatment modalities. Relative to existing efforts in the CISNET program, the proposed project will emphasize comprehensiveness of evaluated interventions and population trends; integration of different modeling approaches; and developing meaningful comparisons among models. ? ?

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
5U01CA097416-08
Application #
7487397
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZCA1-SRRB-K (M1))
Program Officer
Feuer, Eric J
Project Start
2002-09-25
Project End
2010-08-31
Budget Start
2008-09-01
Budget End
2009-08-31
Support Year
8
Fiscal Year
2008
Total Cost
$148,219
Indirect Cost
Name
Erasmus Medical Center
Department
Type
DUNS #
411761687
City
Rotterdam
State
Country
Netherlands
Zip Code
3015 -GE
Boer, Rob; Moolgavkar, Suresh H; Levy, David T (2012) Chapter 15: Impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000--summary and limitations. Risk Anal 32 Suppl 1:S190-201
Moolgavkar, Suresh H; Holford, Theodore R; Levy, David T et al. (2012) Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000. J Natl Cancer Inst 104:541-8
Feuer, Eric J; Levy, David T; McCarthy, William J (2012) Chapter 1:The impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on U.S. lung cancer mortality, 1975-2000: an introduction to the problem. Risk Anal 32 Suppl 1:S6-S13
Schultz, F W; Boer, R; de Koning, H J (2012) Chapter 7: Description of MISCAN-lung, the Erasmus MC Lung Cancer microsimulation model for evaluating cancer control interventions. Risk Anal 32 Suppl 1:S85-98
McCarthy, William J; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun et al. (2012) Chapter 6: Lung cancer in never smokers: epidemiology and risk prediction models. Risk Anal 32 Suppl 1:S69-84
Shi, Lu; Tian, Haijun; McCarthy, William J et al. (2011) Exploring the uncertainties of early detection results: model-based interpretation of mayo lung project. BMC Cancer 11:92