Projecting cancer incidence and mortality rates, and relating those projections to the attainment of national cancer control objectives are the goals of this intramural research project. The project includes development of a computer model which will project cancer incidence and mortality, meshing together the model with a variety of sources of data, and adapting quantitative cancer control objectives to fit the modeling framework. The NCI staff (principally Dr. Levin) has developed and written a large Fortran program for the NIH DEC-10 computer which is used to project cancer mortality and incidence figures from 1980 through the year 2020. The computer model is based partially on early work by Dr. David Eddy of Duke University. The model incorporates different models for survival from cancer, includes data for 40 separate cancer sites, includes the ability to examine temporal trends in underlying cancer incidence and in mortality from other causes, allows adjustment to 1970 or 1980 U.S. population standards, and produces the calculation of annual incidence and mortality statistics. The crux of the model is the flexibility to analyze the effect of cancer prevention, screening, and treatment activities, in any combination, on cancer mortality.
