The Branch is developing a computer model which will generate condition forecasts of future tooth loss, dental status, service utilization and expenditures for individuals and families in the U.S. These forecasts will be developed in considerable sociodemographic detail. A feasibility study of alternative modeling methods indicated that development of a model is both feasible and desirable. Cornell University was awarded the contract to develop the model on May 15, 1990. Dr. Caldwell, a microsimulation specialist, will be principal investigator. Microsimulation will be the approach used. Starting from a representative sample of persons and families, the NIDR micro model will forecast tooth loss, dental health conditions, and dental services use for persons identified by age, gender, race, education, income, and other putatively important explanatory variables. It will take approximately two years to develop an operational model. Policy experiments with the full model will be done both for past times and also for future times. As a framework for synthesizing research findings, the NIDR micro model would provide a vehicle for carrying out experiments in which the last dental research could be applied consistently and systematically to key dental policy issues.
