The goal of this project is to develop improved statistical methods for human fertility studies. Work has progressed in the development of statistical models that (1) distinguish between different factors underlying fertility, (2) account for mismeasured ovulation day, and (3) characterize heterogeneity among menstrual cycles and women with respect to surrogates of fertility. In the first area, we developed new Bayesian fertility models for distinguishing between factors associated with sterility, multiple ovulation, reduced cycle viability, and embryo loss. These models can also be used to predict biologically meaningful parameters, such as the frequencies of dizygotic twin implantation and birth. In addition, we developed an approach for distinguishing exposure effects on the average level of fertility from effects on the duration of the fertile window. In the second area, we developed an approach for adjusting for bias in the fertility parameters caused by measurement errors in identifying the day of ovulation. In the third area, we develop a Bayesian model that incorporates prior information in estimating patterns of cervical mucus secretions in the menstrual cycle.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)
Type
Intramural Research (Z01)
Project #
1Z01ES040011-02
Application #
6534995
Study Section
(BB)
Project Start
Project End
Budget Start
Budget End
Support Year
2
Fiscal Year
2001
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
Name
U.S. National Inst of Environ Hlth Scis
Department
Type
DUNS #
City
State
Country
United States
Zip Code
Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B; Giacchi, Elena (2007) Bayesian selection of optimal rules for timing intercourse to conceive by using calendar and mucus. Fertil Steril 88:915-24
Stanford, Joseph B; Dunson, David B (2007) Effects of sexual intercourse patterns in time to pregnancy studies. Am J Epidemiol 165:1088-95
Bigelow, Jamie L; Dunson, David B (2007) Bayesian adaptive regression splines for hierarchical data. Biometrics 63:724-32
Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B (2007) Bayesian methods for searching for optimal rules for timing intercourse to achieve pregnancy. Stat Med 26:1920-36
Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B; Colombo, Bernardo (2006) Cervical mucus secretions on the day of intercourse: an accurate marker of highly fertile days. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol 125:72-8
Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B (2006) Bayesian selection of predictors of conception probabilities across the menstrual cycle. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 20 Suppl 1:30-7
Stanford, Joseph B; Dunson, David B (2006) Foreword. Expanding Methodologies for Capturing Day-Specific Probabilities of Conception. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 20 Suppl 1:1-2
Dunson, David B; Bigelow, Jamie L; Colombo, Bernardo (2005) Reduced fertilization rates in older men when cervical mucus is suboptimal. Obstet Gynecol 105:788-93
Dunson, David B; Stanford, Joseph B (2005) Bayesian inferences on predictors of conception probabilities. Biometrics 61:126-33
Longnecker, Matthew P (2005) Invited Commentary: Why DDT matters now. Am J Epidemiol 162:726-8

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