Shin, Michael U. of Colorado, Boulder This proposal uses a geographic perspective to examine the nature, formation and succession of political attitudes and behavior in central Italy. The focus is on two major parties of the Italian left and how contextual effects or the numerous social, economic and political processes and interactions occurring within and between places influence attitudes and behavior. The major question to be addressed is what political and social mechanisms and processes lie behind the concepts of neighborhood effect and forced field bias. The research will develop a methodological framework for identifying and evaluating contextual effects. The study will utilize archival census and election data to assess major spatial effects in behavior. Both aggregate statistical analysis and regression modeling will be used to examine the spatial relations that exist within and between communes, along with the attributes of the voters of each commune, to understand political support in central Italy. Surveys and interviews in 20 to 25 communes will be undertaken to obtain local-level comparisons of social processes and influences on political behavior. The work will contribute to a theory of contextual effects with respect to political behavior by identifying important influential social processes. In addition it will present a methodology that detects, identifies and evaluates such effects and which can be replicated elsewhere.
