An understanding of the evolutionary and ecological processes that have contributed to the diversity and distribution of our flora is critical for effective conservation strategies in this era of rapid climate change. Utilizing state-of-the-art DNA sequencing technologies, this research investigates the evolution of the bulrushes, an ecologically important group of wetland species in the sedge family (Cyperaceae), and utilizes this historical context to predict how species with disparate ranges may differentially respond to climate change. Within this evolutionary framework, this study identifies two endangered, narrowly distributed bulrushes and compares them to their most closely related widespread relatives, quantifying the genetic diversity present within their populations and modeling their responses to predicted climatic regimes.
Climate change has been a threat for decades, yet effective mitigation strategies are still nascent. As resources allocated to conservation are limited, it is essential to prioritize by protecting those species most at risk. Using the evolutionary context afforded by this study, this research utilizes the bulrushes as a case study in order to determine if species with narrow ranges are inherently more at risk of extinction under future climates than widespread species. The results of this study will determine whether the range of a species is a useful proxy for extinction risk, thereby allowing for the identification of at-risk species before they become rare and ultimately informing a predictive and preventative, rather than reactive, approach to conservation.
