This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).
The PIs propose to improve an existing seasonal ensemble forecasting system that they developed and use the system to predict sea ice conditions in the arctic and subarctic seas with lead times ranging from two weeks to three seasons. Their primary objectives are: (1) To develop seasonal ensemble forecasting capabilities by improving model physics and expanding data assimilation capabilities. (2) To conduct and distribute twice monthly near real-time hindcasts and seasonal ensemble forecasts of sea ice thickness, concentration, and extent in the arctic and subarctic seas. (3) To determine the predictive skill of the system through careful forecast evaluation and uncertainty analysis and identify areas for further improvement. (4) To maximize the exposure and utility of the seasonal forecasts through extensive outreach activities. To achieve these goals they will develop seasonal ensemble forecasts based on an enhanced synthesis of an ice?ocean model, forcing data, assimilation data, and validation data. Improvement of model physics will target sea ice processes that are particularly sensitive in a warming Arctic with a thinning ice cover. Near real-time hindcasts with the assimilation of ice concentration and SST data will be developed to provide an improved approximation of the current ice and ocean conditions and to create the best possible initial conditions for the forecasts. Wind, temperature, and cloud data from six to eight recent years will provide the forcing data to extend the initial conditions into the future in six to eight realizations (ensemble members). Extensive uncertainty analyses and predictability assessments will shed light on how to further improve the forecasting system, which will be a significant advance in seasonal forecasts of sea ice for all regions of the Arctic and a useful tool to address important science questions about the impact of preconditioning, atmospheric forcing, Pacific water inflow, and summer heat storage in the upper ocean on the seasonal variability and predictability of arctic sea ice.
