this Research Scientist Award develops 2 research agendas. They have in common the general aims of (1) prediction of drinking patterns/problems across time, (2) integrating individual and societal level explanations of drinking patterns/problems, (3) systematically reconciling differences in findings across research studies and methodologies, and (4) synthesizing findings for research questions. The first agenda develops a strategy for a research synthesis of the raw data from multiple treatment evaluation studies to resolve cross-study heterogeneity in the associations of personal characteristics of clients receiving alcohol problems treatment with alcohol problems treatment outcomes. Irs objectives are, first, determination of the homogeneity (replication) of results across multiple alcohol treatment followup studies by (1) methodological variations across studies, (2) other individual client-level characteristics, (3) treatment characteristics, (4) group-level characteristics of clients, and (5) both quantitative and qualitative assessment of historical or period effect influences. At least three countries ( the U.S. included) which are rich in alcohol problems treatment followup studies over a period of 40 years will be selected for examination; inclusion of multiple countries will insure cultural variation and inclusion over a long period of time will insure historical variation. The second agenda incorporates the data archive from the Collaborative Alcohol-Related Longitudinal Project with longitudinal data recently collected in Prague by Dr. Ludek Kubicka to investigate the relationship between post-totalitarian social change in the Czech Republic and the drinking behavior of its population in a research synthesis. A period effect design attempts to differentiate the effects of societal change on drinking behavior from the effects of confounding factors (such as aging on the individual level) and socio/economic/political change. The general hypothesis is that in early stages of the transition from a totalitarian state with a socialistic economy to a democratic state with a free-market economy, alcohol consumption/problems will increase due to the loosening of external social controls and a lag in their substitution by democratic forms of social influence. Specific hypotheses, postulating changes in alcohol consumption accompanying certain changes in the social positions of individuals, will be tested. Using a research synthesis approach, this design controls, not only for individual-level characteristics in the multiple longitudinal studies compared, but also (a) methodological differences across studies and (b) societal-level period effects which may compete with the effect under investigation.
