The aim of this project is to extend and develop the dynamic analysis and application of models of human demography building on the investigator's previous work.
The specific aims are: (1) to develop and apply feedback models of controlled populations to contemporary and historical populations; (2) to extend the analysis and application of stochastic population models in the area of forecasting; and (3) to study the dynamics and application of demographic models of childhood infectious disease. The specific goals of the work on feedback models of controlled populations are: (a) analysis of stochastically perturbed nonlinear models which are below the threshold of internally sustained cycles; (b) analysis of models which incorporate feedback in the timing and level of reproduction; (c) application of the models in a) and b) to recent experience in the U.S. and several European populations; and (d) analysis, application and testing of a marriage regulation model of Henry and Bonneuil using reconstructed population data from seventeenth century France. The specific goals of the work on stochastic models are: a) analysis of the properties of stochastic versions of population momentum and reproductive value; b) application of these developments and extant stochastic theory to forecasts of age-composition and population size in the U.S. in the near and middle term. The specific goal of the work on demographic-epidemiological models is to explore the linkage between demographic fluctuations and epidemiological fluctuations with application to specific data.
