Sophisticated modeling techniques can be powerful tools for decision makers seeking to understand the effects of cancer control interventions on population trends in cancer incidence and mortality. Yet the proven value of such models in health policy is limited by legitimate concerns over lack of transparency of complex models and variability in published results from different groups. NCI's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) was created to promote collaboration between independent modeling groups investigating similar questions. By using the same sources of data for inputs and agreeing on uniform outcome measures, the variability in results reflects uncertainty in the effects of cancer control interventions rather than differences in design of the analysis. Further, by working together, the modeling groups can coherently explain the causes of variation. This proposal furthers the goals of CISNET by using comparative modeling approach to estimate the contributions of tobacco control and screening to reducing deaths from lung cancer. Over the next 5 years, major trials will report results on the efficacy of helical CT screening for lung cancer. The five CISNET models described in this proposal represent an existing infrastructure with which to synthesize these new data with existing data from observational and cohort studies and tumor registries. This group of models is poised to translate trial results into population-level effects and to project trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality if these policy interventions were adopted alone or in combination. We propose to disseminate our results in ways that will allow decision makers to prioritize one or more specific interventions to achieve the greatest reduction in lung cancer deaths.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
3U01CA152956-03S2
Application #
8547912
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZCA1-SRLB-4 (M1))
Program Officer
Stedman, Margaret R
Project Start
2010-09-01
Project End
2015-08-31
Budget Start
2012-09-01
Budget End
2013-08-31
Support Year
3
Fiscal Year
2012
Total Cost
$109,989
Indirect Cost
$18,538
Name
Massachusetts General Hospital
Department
Type
DUNS #
073130411
City
Boston
State
MA
Country
United States
Zip Code
02199
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Levy, David; Mohlman, Mary Katherine; Zhang, Yian (2016) Estimating the Potential Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Adverse Maternal and Child Health Outcomes in the United States Using the SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model. Nicotine Tob Res 18:1240-9
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ten Haaf, Kevin; de Koning, Harry J (2015) Should Never-Smokers at Increased Risk for Lung Cancer Be Screened? J Thorac Oncol 10:1285-91
Ten Haaf, Kevin; van Rosmalen, Joost; de Koning, Harry J (2015) Lung cancer detectability by test, histology, stage, and gender: estimates from the NLST and the PLCO trials. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 24:154-61
Ten Haaf, Kevin; de Koning, Harry J (2015) Overdiagnosis in lung cancer screening: why modelling is essential. J Epidemiol Community Health 69:1035-9

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