The objective of the Models and Forecasts Project is to develop the next generation of flexible and high performance simulation methods to model infectious disease epidemics, and further to use these methods to develop a theory and practice of epidemic forecasting. This Project will create key components of an information supply chain: an integrated end-to-end decision support system that leads from data to decisions for effective public health decision-making. The results will provide new approaches for the scientific study of infectious disease transmission dynamics and a flexible framework of preparedness to support rapid decision making for emerging public health threats. The project addresses three specific aims: (1) Develop simulation methods at the population scale that improve our ability to model disease dynamics and to evaluate intervention policies. Advances will include novel multi-scale modeling methods that capture disease dynamics at multiple temporal and spatial scales, combining for the first time in a single framework: (a) models of intra-host course of infection, symptoms, and transmissibility, (b) cognitively plausible models of human health psychology, and (c) population-scale models of transmission. (2) Develop useful translational software tools for the research community and for the community of public health practitioners and educators. Access to user-friendly tools is especially important in state, county and municipal health departments, and adapting MIDAS platforms for use in training and education environments will help create a new generation of public health professionals with a better appreciation for the value of models in making wise public health decisions. (3) Promote the development of systematic methods for improving epidemic forecasting: (a) serve as a clearinghouse for both epidemic forecasters and consumers of epidemic forecasts (local, state and federal agencies, commercial organizations, and the general public);(b) establish common forecasting tasks and curate common datasets;and (c) hold a forecasting workshop to serve all of MIDAS's stakeholders as well as state and local health departments, DHHS, DHS, DoD, and other federal agencies.
This project will address critical computational methods for understanding the spread and control of infectious diseases, produce translational software tools for the public health community, and develop systematic methods for epidemiological forecasting. The results will improve the nation's ability to evaluate public health policies and to plan more effectively for a wide range of future emerging epidemics.
|Lessler, Justin; Cummings, Derek A T (2016) Mechanistic Models of Infectious Disease and Their Impact on Public Health. Am J Epidemiol 183:415-22|
|Salje, Henrik; Cauchemez, Simon; Alera, Maria Theresa et al. (2016) Reconstruction of 60 Years of Chikungunya Epidemiology in the Philippines Demonstrates Episodic and Focal Transmission. J Infect Dis 213:604-10|
|Clapham, Hannah E; Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel; Azman, Andrew S et al. (2016) Dengue Virus (DENV) Neutralizing Antibody Kinetics in Children After Symptomatic Primary and Postprimary DENV Infection. J Infect Dis 213:1428-35|
|Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong et al. (2016) The impact of rainfall and temperature on the spatial progression of cases during the chikungunya re-emergence in Thailand in 2008-2009. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 110:125-33|
|Guclu, Hasan; Read, Jonathan; Vukotich Jr, Charles J et al. (2016) Social Contact Networks and Mixing among Students in K-12 Schools in Pittsburgh, PA. PLoS One 11:e0151139|
|Grantz, Kyra H; Rane, Madhura S; Salje, Henrik et al. (2016) Disparities in influenza mortality and transmission related to sociodemographic factors within Chicago in the pandemic of 1918. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 113:13839-13844|
|Poon, Leo L M; Song, Timothy; Rosenfeld, Roni et al. (2016) Quantifying influenza virus diversity and transmission in humans. Nat Genet 48:195-200|
|Dalziel, Benjamin D; BjÃ¸rnstad, Ottar N; van Panhuis, Willem G et al. (2016) Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns. PLoS Comput Biol 12:e1004655|
|Nisalak, Ananda; Clapham, Hannah E; Kalayanarooj, Siripen et al. (2016) Forty Years of Dengue Surveillance at a Tertiary Pediatric Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, 1973-2012. Am J Trop Med Hyg 94:1342-7|
|Lessler, Justin; Salje, Henrik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D et al. (2016) Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Am J Epidemiol 183:657-63|
Showing the most recent 10 out of 199 publications