This proposal seeks a five-year continuation of Monitoring the Future, an ongoing epidemiological research and reporting project. Begun in 1975, the project is one of the nation's major sources of reliable information on trends in drug use among adolescents and young adults, as well as a basic research study. Surveys of nationally representative samples will be conducted for (a) 8th, 10th, and 12th graders (17,000 in about 140 schools per year per grade); (b) panels of high school graduates aged 19-32, 35, and 40 (surveyed by mail); and (c) panels drawn from the 8th grade classes of 1991-1993 (surveyed biennially by mail). The study's cohort-sequential design permits the differentiation of three types of change over time-historical, maturational, and cohort--each of which tends to have different types of determinants, and all of which have been found to occur for at least some drugs. In addition to monitoring drug use and factors which may help to explain historical trends and cohort differences in use, the project has the objectives of documenting the natural history of drug use through middle adulthood, determining what transitions in social roles and social environments contribute to the maturational changes observed, and determining what features of those roles and environments are particularly salient. The study also seeks to ascertain the importance of many other hypothesized psychological, behavioral, and social determinants of drug use (including attitudes and beliefs about drugs, and various lifestyle orientations) as well as a range of potential consequences of drug use (including physical health, psychological well-being, status attainment, and role performance). The fact that these multiple aims and multiple populations are encompassed in a single, integrated study is both synergistic and cost effective. The study's extensive measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for a great many licit and illicit drugs; (b) attitudes and beliefs about these drugs, as well as perceived availability, peer norms, and norms among role model groups; (c) other behaviors and individual characteristics (delinquency, school performance, plans and aspirations, etc.), and (d) aspects of key social environments (home, work, school) and social role statuses, experiences, and transitions (marriage, pregnancy, parenthood, divorce). Study results will have major implications for understanding and preventing drug use and abuse from adolescence through middle adulthood.
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