This proposal seeks a five-year continuation of Monitoring the Future (MTF), an ongoing epidemiological and etiological research and reporting project begun in 1975. As well as being a basic research study, MTF has become the nation's most reliable source of information on trends in drug use among American adolescents, college students, and young adults. Annual, nationally representative sample surveys will be conducted of (a) eighth, tenth, and twelfth graders (16,000 in about 140 schools per year per grade), (b) panels of high school graduates aged 19-30, 35, 40 and 45 (by mail), and (c) panels drawn from the eighth grade classes of 1991-93 graduates (by mail). These data collection procedures (in-school and by mail) are highly cost efficient. The study's cohort-sequential design permits the measurement and differentiation of three types of changes--age (developmental), period (historical) and cohort. Each type has different kinds of determinants, and all three types have occurred for most drugs. Factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences will be monitored. MTF has the further objectives of documenting the natural history of drug use and related attitudes through middle adulthood; determining what transitions in social roles and social environments contribute to them; and determining what features of those roles and environments are most influential. The study will examine the importance of many other hypothesized psychological, behavioral, and social determinants of drug use (including attitudes and beliefs about drugs, counter-advertising, role-modeling, and access limitations), as well as a range of potential consequences of drug use (including physical health, psychological well-being, status attainment, and role performance). The investigators will continue to facilitate use of MTF data by others for a hose of research purposes, including policy evaluation. The study's extensive measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for a great many licit and illicit drugs, (b) attitudes and beliefs about these drugs, as well as perceived availability, peer norms, and norms among role model groups, (c) other behaviors and individual characteristics (delinquency, school performance, plans and aspirations, etc.), and (d) aspects of key social environments (home, work, school and social role statuses, experiences, and transitions (marriage, pregnancy, parenthood, divorce). Study results will continue to have major implications for understanding and preventing drug use and abuse from adolescence through middle adulthood.

National Institute of Health (NIH)
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)
Research Project (R01)
Project #
Application #
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZRG1 (02))
Program Officer
Colliver, James
Project Start
Project End
Budget Start
Budget End
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Fiscal Year
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Indirect Cost
University of Michigan Ann Arbor
Biostatistics & Other Math Sci
Organized Research Units
Ann Arbor
United States
Zip Code
Pesko, Michael F; Huang, Jidong; Johnston, Lloyd D et al. (2018) E-cigarette price sensitivity among middle- and high-school students: evidence from monitoring the future. Addiction 113:896-906
Jang, Bohyun Joy; Schuler, Megan S; Evans-Polce, Rebecca J et al. (2018) Marital Status as a Partial Mediator of the Associations Between Young Adult Substance Use and Subsequent Substance Use Disorder: Application of Causal Inference Methods. J Stud Alcohol Drugs 79:567-577
Martz, Meghan E; Zucker, Robert A; Schulenberg, John E et al. (2018) Psychosocial and neural indicators of resilience among youth with a family history of substance use disorder. Drug Alcohol Depend 185:198-206
Linden-Carmichael, Ashley N; Kloska, Deborah D; Evans-Polce, Rebecca et al. (2018) College degree attainment by age of first marijuana use and parental education. Subst Abus :1-5
Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M; Patrick, Megan E (2018) Simultaneous Alcohol and Marijuana Use Among Young Adult Drinkers: Age-Specific Changes in Prevalence from 1977 to 2016. Alcohol Clin Exp Res 42:2224-2233
Evans-Polce, Rebecca J; Patrick, Megan E; Lanza, Stephanie T et al. (2018) Reasons for Vaping Among U.S. 12th Graders. J Adolesc Health 62:457-462
Martz, Meghan E; Schulenberg, John E; Patrick, Megan E (2018) Passing on Pot: High School Seniors' Reasons for Not Using Marijuana as Predictors of Future Use. J Stud Alcohol Drugs 79:761-769
Teter, Christian J; DiRaimo, Christopher G; West, Brady T et al. (2018) Nonmedical Use of Prescription Stimulants Among US High School Students to Help Study: Results From a National Survey. J Pharm Pract :897190018783887
Tang, Sandra; Patrick, Megan E (2018) Technology and interactive social media use among 8th and 10th graders in the U.S. and associations with homework and school grades. Comput Human Behav 86:34-44
Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M; Patrick, Megan E (2018) U.S. adolescent alcohol use by race/ethnicity: Consumption and perceived need to reduce/stop use. J Ethn Subst Abuse :1-25

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