This proposal seeks a five-year continuation of Monitoring the Future (MTF), an ongoing epidemiological and etiological research and reporting project begun in 1975. As well as being a basic research study, MTF has become the nation's most reliable source of information on trends in drug use among American adolescents, college students, and young adults. Annual, nationally representative sample surveys will be conducted of (a) eighth, tenth, and twelfth graders (16,000 in about 140 schools per year per grade), (b) panels of high school graduates aged 19-30, 35, 40 and 45 (by mail), and (c) panels drawn from the eighth grade classes of 1991-93 graduates (by mail). These data collection procedures (in-school and by mail) are highly cost efficient. ? ? The study's cohort-sequential design permits the measurement and differentiation of three types of changes--age (developmental), period (historical) and cohort. Each type has different kinds of determinants, and all three types have occurred for most drugs. Factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences will be monitored. MTF has the further objectives of documenting the natural history of drug use and related attitudes through middle adulthood; determining what transitions in social roles and social environments contribute to them; and determining what features of those roles and environments are most influential. The study will examine the importance of many other hypothesized psychological, behavioral, and social determinants of drug use (including attitudes and beliefs about drugs, counter-advertising, role-modeling, and access limitations), as well as a range of potential consequences of drug use (including physical health, psychological well-being, status attainment, and role performance). The investigators will continue to facilitate use of MTF data by others for a hose of research purposes, including policy evaluation. ? ? The study's extensive measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for a great many licit and illicit drugs, (b) attitudes and beliefs about these drugs, as well as perceived availability, peer norms, and norms among role model groups, (c) other behaviors and individual characteristics (delinquency, school performance, plans and aspirations, etc.), and (d) aspects of key social environments (home, work, school and social role statuses, experiences, and transitions (marriage, pregnancy, parenthood, divorce). Study results will continue to have major implications for understanding and preventing drug use and abuse from adolescence through middle adulthood.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
5R01DA001411-29
Application #
6641312
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZRG1-EDC-2 (02))
Program Officer
Obrien, Moira
Project Start
1975-06-28
Project End
2007-07-31
Budget Start
2003-08-01
Budget End
2004-07-31
Support Year
29
Fiscal Year
2003
Total Cost
$5,473,187
Indirect Cost
Name
University of Michigan Ann Arbor
Department
Biostatistics & Other Math Sci
Type
Organized Research Units
DUNS #
073133571
City
Ann Arbor
State
MI
Country
United States
Zip Code
48109
McCabe, Sean Esteban; West, Brady T; McCabe, Vita V (2018) Associations Between Early Onset of E-cigarette Use and Cigarette Smoking and Other Substance Use Among US Adolescents: A National Study. Nicotine Tob Res 20:923-930
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McCabe, Sean Esteban; Veliz, Philip; Schulenberg, John E (2018) How Collegiate Fraternity and Sorority Involvement Relates to Substance Use During Young Adulthood and Substance Use Disorders in Early Midlife: A National Longitudinal Study. J Adolesc Health 62:S35-S43
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Jang, Bohyun Joy; Schuler, Megan S; Evans-Polce, Rebecca J et al. (2018) Marital Status as a Partial Mediator of the Associations Between Young Adult Substance Use and Subsequent Substance Use Disorder: Application of Causal Inference Methods. J Stud Alcohol Drugs 79:567-577

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