The proposed research will assess changes in functional and health characteristics of an elderly (65+) and oldest-old (85+) nationally representative sample of persons followed from 1982 to 1988. Changes in the use of acute and LTC services for persons of equivalent health and functional status will be examined by relating patterns of Medicare SNF, Home Health and acute hospital use for three periods related to recent Medicare changes, i.e., before (before Oct. 1983), during (Oct. 1983 to Oct. 1987), and after (after October 1987) the introduction of Prospective Payment for reimbursement of acute hospital stays. The 1988 survey provides 6 years observation of the mortality, health and functional changes of persons surveyed in 1982 and 4 years on those surveyed in 1984. Medicare Part A records for the period 1980-89 will be linked to all persons in the 3 surveys. Deaths will be identified in Medicare records and death certificates obtained using the National Death Index. For comparability, questionnaires in earlier surveys will be used in 1988 as well as similar sampling procedures for persons who a.) were 65+ in 1984 but not disabled or institutionalized and b.) became 65 between 1984 to 1988. The instruments provide detailed information on functional and health status, informal care support, sociodemographics, housing, health service and economic status. A public use file with longitudinally linked records for 1982, 1984, and 1988 will be released as soon as a cleaned tape with longitudinal weights is available. The linked longitudinal surveys and Medicare Part A files will be used to analyze, with multivariate event history models: a.) functional and health status changes, b.) trajectory of service use of different types (i.e., hospital, SNF and home health) for persons with different levels and types of functional impairment, c.) effects of changes in Medicare on the service use trajectories for persons with specific types of health and function problems, and d.) differential effects of cognitive impairment versus physical disability on Medicare service use. Data will also be available on two longitudinally followed Medicaid populations. Methodological development of multivariate event history strategies for analyzing linked morbidity, disability and mortality processes will be conducted.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute on Aging (NIA)
Type
Method to Extend Research in Time (MERIT) Award (R37)
Project #
5R37AG007198-07
Application #
3480230
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (NSS)
Project Start
1987-07-01
Project End
1996-12-31
Budget Start
1993-07-01
Budget End
1993-12-31
Support Year
7
Fiscal Year
1993
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
Name
Duke University
Department
Type
Organized Research Units
DUNS #
071723621
City
Durham
State
NC
Country
United States
Zip Code
27705
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Corder, L S; Woodbury, M A; Manton, K G (1996) Proxy response patterns among the aged: effects on estimates of health status and medical care utilization from the 1982-1984 long-term care surveys. J Clin Epidemiol 49:173-82
Manton, K G; Stallard, E; Corder, L (1995) Changes in morbidity and chronic disability in the U.S. elderly population: evidence from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 50:S194-204
Manton, K G; Cornelius, E S; Woodbury, M A (1995) Nursing home residents: a multivariate analysis of their medical, behavioral, psychosocial, and service use characteristics. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 50:M242-51
Manton, K G; Woodbury, M A; Stallard, E (1995) Sex differences in human mortality and aging at late ages: the effect of mortality selection and state dynamics. Gerontologist 35:597-608
Manton, K G; Stallard, E; Woodbury, M A et al. (1994) Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging: multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz. J Gerontol 49:B169-90
Potthoff, R F (1994) Telephone sampling in epidemiologic research: to reap the benefits, avoid the pitfalls. Am J Epidemiol 139:967-78
Manton, K G; Corder, L; Stallard, E (1993) Changes in the use of personal assistance and special equipment from 1982 to 1989: results from the 1982 and 1989 NLTCS. Gerontologist 33:168-76
Manton, K G; Corder, L S; Stallard, E (1993) Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence and prevalence rates in the U.S. elderly population from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey. J Gerontol 48:S153-66
Manton, K G; Vertrees, J C; Clark, R F (1993) A multivariate analysis of disability and health, and its change over time in the National Channeling Demonstration data. Gerontologist 33:610-8

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