We propose a competing renewal of the MIDAS Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics (CCDD) at Harvard School of Public Health. Building on a four-year record of over 170 peer-reviewed publications and significant achievements in outreaching and education, we propose a multipronged approach to extend the activities of this Center of Excellence into the next funding period. Combining expertise in mathematical and statistical modeling of infection with related disciplines, we will undertake methodologic development and application to a range of public health problems. Project I. Pathogen Genomics and Evolution develops computational and statistical models to infer local and global transmission and clustering of infections, antigenic change by recombination, and evolution under vaccine-mediated selection. Project II. New Analytic Methods for New Data Sources develops and tests statistical approaches for interpreting participatory surveillance and mobile phone data for parameterization and testing of transmission-dynamic models, uses hydrological modeling to build risk maps for malaria, and develops the statistical theory of negative controls. Project III. Accounting for Measured and Unmeasured Heterogeneity in Host Populations proposes a variety of studies to assess the contribution of host heterogeneity to model parameter estimation for infections with different transmission routes and creates models incorporating two key sources of such heterogeneity: virus interference and dose-response relationships. Project IV. Understanding and Controlling Antibiotic Resistance studies drug resistance in gonorrhea, tuberculosis, and pneumococcal infections, applying methods from earlier projects to understand the genetic and selective origins of resistance and the mechanisms underlying observed heterogeneities in its prevalence. Project V. Collaborative Modeling for Assessment and Optimization in Public Health proposes work with public health partners to address two key aspects of their work ~ burden/severity estimation and optimization of interventions - using a range of modeling approaches. Software development and sharing and Policy Studies are integral parts of our research activities. In Outreach and Education we propose an ambitious set of initiatives aimed at pipeline and recruiting, training the next generation of modelers, and engaging colleagues in policy, academia and journalism.

Public Health Relevance

Preparedness for public health emergencies including emerging infectious diseases requires a foundation of statistical, mathematical, epidemiological, biological and computational knowledge and infrastructure to respond quickly with policy-relevant analyses. CCDD, working as part of the MIDAS network, pursues all of these avenues, building understanding of disease transmission through research and close collaboration with decision makers to answer relevant questions at times of urgent need.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS)
Type
Specialized Center--Cooperative Agreements (U54)
Project #
2U54GM088558-06
Application #
8747003
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZGM1-BBCB-5 (MI))
Program Officer
Sheeley, Douglas
Project Start
2009-09-15
Project End
2019-08-31
Budget Start
2014-09-20
Budget End
2015-08-31
Support Year
6
Fiscal Year
2014
Total Cost
$2,279,902
Indirect Cost
$751,213
Name
Harvard University
Department
Public Health & Prev Medicine
Type
Schools of Public Health
DUNS #
149617367
City
Boston
State
MA
Country
United States
Zip Code
02115
Babu, Tara M; Perera, Ranawaka A P M; Wu, Joseph T et al. (2018) Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment. J Infect Dis 218:1054-1060
Lewnard, Joseph A; Tedijanto, Christine; Cowling, Benjamin J et al. (2018) Measurement of Vaccine Direct Effects Under the Test-Negative Design. Am J Epidemiol 187:2686-2697
Peak, Corey M; Reilly, Amanda L; Azman, Andrew S et al. (2018) Prolonging herd immunity to cholera via vaccination: Accounting for human mobility and waning vaccine effects. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 12:e0006257
Ali, Sheikh Taslim; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lau, Eric H Y et al. (2018) Mitigation of Influenza B Epidemic with School Closures, Hong Kong, 2018. Emerg Infect Dis 24:2071-2073
Wesolowski, Amy; Taylor, Aimee R; Chang, Hsiao-Han et al. (2018) Mapping malaria by combining parasite genomic and epidemiologic data. BMC Med 16:190
Lewnard, Joseph A; Cobey, Sarah (2018) Immune History and Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness. Vaccines (Basel) 6:
Buckee, Caroline O; Cardenas, Maria I E; Corpuz, June et al. (2018) Productive disruption: opportunities and challenges for innovation in infectious disease surveillance. BMJ Glob Health 3:e000538
Lewnard, Joseph A; Tähtinen, Paula A; Laine, Miia K et al. (2018) Impact of Antimicrobial Treatment for Acute Otitis Media on Carriage Dynamics of Penicillin-Susceptible and Penicillin-Nonsusceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae. J Infect Dis 218:1356-1366
Yaesoubi, Reza; Trotter, Caroline; Colijn, Caroline et al. (2018) The cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study. PLoS Med 15:e1002495
Yang, Chongguang; Lu, Liping; Warren, Joshua L et al. (2018) Internal migration and transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in Shanghai, China: an epidemiological, spatial, genomic analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 18:788-795

Showing the most recent 10 out of 462 publications