This project proposes to expand the existing CVD System Dynamics Model (SDM) developed by the CDC and to modify the current CDC Contract with the Research Triangle International (RTI) which subcontracts with the Sustainability Institute and Homer Consulting, to address research questions of interest to both the CDC and NHLBI. NHLBI funds will extend the model to assist in (a) more accurately estimating the potential impact of applying evidence from new clinical trials and other research on future CVD health outcomes in the United States, (b) more accurately estimating the relative impact of prevention and therapeutic CVD strategies on health outcomes, (c) conducting simulations of possible epidemiological and clinical research projects to improve the design of future research projects, and (d) informing the process of setting research priorities in the Division of Prevention and Population Sciences in the National Hear, Lung, and Blood Institute at the National Institutes of Health. Depending on progress, other duties maybe assigned.
