When people congregate - for example, at entertainment events, in crowds, and airplanes - they come into close contact with each other and can spread infectious diseases. The Disney World measles outbreak in 2016 is a prominent example. Air travel, in particular, is a leading factor in the spread of infections, and there have been several outbreaks of serious diseases that spread during air travel, such as SARS, H1N1 influenza, and tuberculosis. Public health policies and procedures for crowd management, boarding airplanes, etc. can help in mitigating the spread of disease, if these policies are science-based. The spread of directly transmitted diseases is governed by the movement patterns of people because the movement can bring an infected person close to others. The science of "pedestrian dynamics" provides mathematical models that can accurately simulate the movement of individuals in a crowd. These models allow scientists to understand how different policies, such as boarding procedures on planes, can prevent, or make worse, the transmission of infections. This project seeks to develop a novel software that will provide a variety of pedestrian dynamics models, infection spread models, as well as data so that scientists can analyze the effect of different mechanisms on the spread of directly transmitted diseases in crowded areas. The initial focus of this project is on air travel. However, the software can be extended to a broader scope of applications in movement analysis and epidemiology, such as in theme parks and sports venues. The project team is working closely with decision makers in airports, public health agencies, and the airline industry. This collaboration will lead to practical applications of this science that will improve public health. This project and the software will educate a wide range of scientists as well as students, in particular, students from under-represented groups, as well as professionals working in the public health fields.
This project seeks to develop a novel software that will provide a variety of pedestrian dynamics models, infection spread models, as well as data so that scientists can analyze the effect of different mechanisms on the spread of directly transmitted diseases in crowded areas. The initial focus of this project is on air travel. However, the software can be extended to a broader scope of applications in movement analysis and epidemiology, such as in theme parks and sports venues. Development of the proposed software will involve several innovations. It will include a novel phylogeography model that links fine-scale human movement data with virus genetic information to more accurately model geographic diffusion of viruses. New models for pedestrian movement will enable modeling of complex human movement patterns. A recommendation system for the choice of pedestrian dynamics models and a domain specific language for the input of policies and human behaviors will enhance usability by researchers in diverse fields. Community building initiatives will catalyze inter-disciplinary research to ensures the long-term sustainability of the project through a critical mass of contributors and users.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
