This research involves using vertical temperature measurements from available sonde stations and from the space-based Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) to determine the altitudes and geographic locations expected to be optimal for detecting long-term changes.
Both radiosonde profiles of atmospheric temperature and MSU estimates of lower and upper tropospheric temperatures will be used to characterize the variability and autocorrelation of the profile data. This information will then be combined with general circulation model projections to discern the altitudes and locations at which significant climate changes might be detected earliest. The methods follow statistical techniques previously applied to ozone and other geophysical data.
The ability to detect the atmospheric changes expected to accompany increasing levels of greenhouse gases can assist the climate community in accurately attributing the environmental effects and may help quantify the extent to which these changes are due to anthropogenic components. The results will help determine if the projected changes should be detectable either currently, or in the near future. The techniques can also quantify the advantage of improved data accuracy in reducing the time to detect trends. The work is important in terms of developing realistic expectations for the detection of climate change.
