The goal of this research is to determine the mechanisms governing the organization and maintenance of recurring, non-traditional mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) by using numerical simulations, observational analyses, and an integrated educational program -- Meteorological Education and Secondary School Outreach ("MESO"). MCSs produce much of the warm season rainfall in the agriculturally vital Great Plains, as well as widespread hazardous weather. Recent work has revealed two recurring MCS structures that are poorly understood -convective lines with leading stratiform ("LS") and with parallel stratiform ("PS") precipitation -both of which frequently produce flash flooding. Although the elemental mechanisms for development and maintenance of LS systems have been investigated, they are still unclear for PS systems as well as for elevated (not surface-based) MCSs. This lack of knowledge is important because, without it, the ability to forecast precipitation and hazardous weather from these recurring organizational modes is unlikely to improve.
Intellectual Merit of the Proposed Activity: The work is innovative because it provides an integrated approach to a problem that has received insufficient attention, and in doing so seeks to train enrolled and prospective scientists through the MESO program. The outcomes of this work will be: 1) explanation of the key environmental and storm-scale processes that lead to PS MCSs, 2) explanation of how the fundamental processes in LS and PS MCSs change when convection is elevated, 3) explanation of the role of three-dimensionality in convective organization, and 4) improved skills and scientific abilities among both enrolled and college-bound future scientists. Collectively, these outcomes will improve the predictability of convective organization and will strengthen the next generation of scientists who work on these problems.
Integration of Research and Education: The MESO program will generate web-based outreach tools, providing a long-term means for meteorological education. The MESO program will require enrolled students to understand the funded research and to use it as a tool for outreach to non-meteorologists, both educating the outreach audience and honing the scientific communication and computing skills of the enrolled students. Local secondary students will learn about scientific thinking, research, and careers, in addition to useful information about local mesoscale weather. The PI will incorporate research results into his undergraduate and graduate courses. Additionally, the MESO recruitment materials will specifically target women and minorities.
Broad Dissemination of Results: MESO will create public news releases of findings in lay terms, accompanied by web-based modules. The secondary school component of MESO will disseminate results in a rigorous yet understandable way to students who will be recruited to enter the science fields. Finally, in addition to publishing results in high quality journals, the PI strongly encourages his graduate students to present results at conferences and to forecast offices.
Benefits to Society: Society will benefit from improved forecasts of hazardous weather and precipitation associated with non-traditional MCSs, as well as from a stronger, more diverse population of college scientists with enhanced communication abilities. Nebraskans will also benefit from enhanced understanding of weather information owing to MESO.
