Funding will allow the researcher to continue developing long, exactly dated tree-ring chronologies from Mesoamerica for use in reconstructing patterns of seasonal precipitation and associated large-scale climate dynamics. Specifically, the researcher will: 1) develop a network of climate-sensitive Montezuma baldcypress, Douglas-fir, and other conifer chronologies in central and southern Mexico and Guatemala; 2) analyze the Montezuma baldcypress chronologies spanning the past 1200 years at Barranca de Amealco, Qeretaro and the past 1600-years at Los Peroles, San Luis Potosi; 3) expand gridded drought severity reconstructions across Mexico and Guatemala to provide a proxy record of climate variability and to place the current drought in historical context; 4) investigate the long term, large scale ocean-atmospheric forcing of Mesoamerican hydroclimatology; 5) develop calibrated reconstructions of regional precipitation, streamflow, and crop yield records for southern Mexico and Guatemala; and 6) explore the link between reconstructed climate extremes and the historical record of epidemic disease, locust outbreaks, and social disruption in Mexico and Guatemala. This research integrates across usually disparate fields of inquiry such as climate, biology, epidemiology, and economics. The intellectual integration coupled with strong training and international collaboration makes for promising broad impact by this project.
