This project will test the hypothesis that fine-scale processes regulate the response of climate to elevated greenhouse forcing at the spatial and temporal scales that matter most for climate change impacts. In order to test this hypothesis, the investigators will establish an approach to climate change uncertainty quantification that uses a suite of impacts metrics as indicators of the magnitude and spatial heterogeneity of physical climate change. This approach will require a combination of existing and new climate model experiments; climate model configuration and testing; observational data analysis; and climate change impacts analysis. This over-arching hypothesis will be tested by systematically testing sub-hypotheses relating fine-scale climate processes to (1) the level of greenhouse forcing, (2) the response of large-scale climate processes, and (3) the internal climate system variability.
The investigators will produce a suite of high-resolution climate model experiments and impacts analyses. These experiments and analyses will contribute to a systematic, quantitative evaluation of the importance of fine-scale climate processes relative to other sources of climate change uncertainty, as well as a quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of elevated greenhouse gas concentrations on a suite of impacts indicators. Although this impacts-based approach will have the secondary benefit of generating climate change impacts assessments (including for severe heat, severe precipitation, and snowmelt), the primary benefit will be to better identify, understand and compare key physical processes that govern the response of the climate system to elevated greenhouse forcing.
The project will have a number of tangible broader impacts, including the design, development, and assessment of a framework for the Stanford University Learning About Climate Change web-resource. The investigators will also seek to broaden the participation of underrepresented groups through graduate student recruiting efforts. Further, the results of this project are likely to result in tangible benefits to society, particularly given the current need for improved scientific understanding and communication that inform local, state, national, and international climate policy.
