This project helps support a workshop entitled "Predicting the Climate of the Coming Decades" at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science on January 11-14, 2010.
Specifically, $10,000 is awarded to support the goal of bringing together researchers from different communities who have shared interests in predicting the climate of the coming decades. This includes researchers involved in developing prediction systems, understanding mechanisms of decadal and forced climate variability, and assessing the needs of potential users.
The participants will include seasoned researchers, new investigators, and students. In this manner, an open and lively exchange of views on climate science will be enabled.
There is general scientific consensus that because of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases the world will be warmer and sea level will be higher, on average, by the middle of this century. However, while there may be robust projections for anthropogenic influence in a particular region, it is entirely likely that the climate in any given year or even decade between now and mid century could be quite different from the projected anthropogenically forced trend because of natural fluctuations of the Earth system unrelated to greenhouse gases. Given these dual "natural" and anthropogenic influences on climate, how can society (from the individual to the corporate scale) best adapt and plan mitigation strategies on these different timescales? Researchers developing climate prediction systems, studying decision-making processes, and developing applications of climate information convened a meeting at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science of the University of Miami to discuss three general topics: (1) the status of decadal climate prediction efforts, (2) assessing user needs of decadal timescale climate information, and (3) constraints on decision making. Here we summarize the main points made during presentations and discussions for each of these topics and suggest ways forward in preparing for the climate of the coming decades. Presentations from the workshop are available online at www.clivar.org/rsmas_decadal.php. Status of decadal climate prediction efforts: The decadal prediction problem represents a new "frontier" in climate modeling that includes a great deal of scientific uncertainty. The grand challenge of decadal climate prediction is to quantify sources of climate predictability on interannual to decadal timescales, and to provide probabilistic regional forecasts with sufficient skill for planning and decision-making purposes. Overall, while there is considerable optimism that decadal predictions may provide useful information, significant challenges remain and the community as a whole recognizes the importance of emphasizing realistic expectations in terms of both what is currently achievable and the challenges that lie ahead. These include understanding the sources and mechanisms of decadal variability, quantifying and identifying sources of uncertainty including the limit of predictability, and detecting and attributing the forced signal of anthropogenic radiative forcing from low frequency natural climate fluctuations. In terms of designing decadal prediction systems, issues include how to design observational networks for forecast initialization and monitoring, how to measure forecast skill in light of the limited observational record, determining what are the best initialization strategies for decadal prediction and how to address model biases during initialization. Crucially for users of decadal prediction information, the major concerns are: How to develop models that provide information that can be used at regional scales as well as in application models; and how much additional regional predictive skill can be obtained by resolving regional "natural" decadal variability mechanisms in addition to the climate change produced by changes in external forcing. Assessing user needs for decadal climate information: Many different sectors, including insurance, water resources, agriculture, and public lands and marine ecosystems, are highly sensitive to climate variability on different timescales. In each of these sectors, there are existing tools for decision making in which climate information is explicitly included, most commonly for seasonal to interannual applications. However, there are decisions in many sectors that require a longer temporal perspective, and information about decadal climate fluctuations and anthropogenic climate change can become economically valuable by informing climate sensitive decisions. Constraints on decision making Decision science is the study of how individuals and groups make decisions utilizing probabilistic information. This field has a long history in anthropology, psychology, and economics, but has more recently been applied to environmental decision making. The way that information is interpreted and used is complex because of individual cognitive biases as well as conflicting group social goals, and this can lead to unexpected outcomes. This has major implications for designing better information products and processes for decision making. Synthesis/Outlook: The science of decadal climate prediction is still in its early days. While it is clear that there is a gap between the information that people need and what the scientific community can currently provide, there is the opportunity to develop applications that use decadal climate information in collaboration with stakeholders. Involvement of the end users from the start of the process of developing climate services is essential to gain trust, focus on the right information for decision making, and develop mechanisms for feedback between different communities. A major recommendation that emerged from the workshop was that the efficacy of such an engagement depends on the advancement of climate literacy. We define climate literacy in the most general sense to include both scientific and public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change on different timescales. A framework in which there is a focus on climate literacy across disciplines would help increase societal resilience to climate fluctuations on any timescale.
