This study will investigate and plan for commercializing space weather specification and forecasting. Space "meteorology" is following a development path similar to that followed by terrestrial weather predecessors. For terrestrial weather, the National Weather Service (NWS) has, since its inception, provided forecasts for the nation. However, with the maturity of prediction capabilities, the noncommercial nature of the NWS resulted in the establishment of a thriving ?value-added? meteorological private sector. Although the nature of space weather will eventually elicit a private sector response that is different in specifics from that for terrestrial meteorology, the ultimate focus will remain the same: to provide commercial products and services that mitigate or eliminate negative environmental effects. However, commercial specification and forecast is still in its infancy and has not been investigated sufficiently to provide specific guidance to start-up ventures. The goal of this study is to conduct early-stage exploratory work on this largely untested approach. The study combines the integrated-modeling expertise derived from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) with traditional business approaches used to establish and market new products and services. The outcome of this effort would be more survivable spacecraft operation, more efficient satellite insurance coverage, and the beginnings of a competitive private sector focusing on providing the best space-weather products at the lowest possible cost.
Space Weather is following a development path similar to that followed by terrestrial weather predecessors. For terrestrial weather, the National Weather Service (NWS) has, since its inception, provided forecasts for the nation. However, with the maturity of prediction capabilities, the noncommercial nature of the NWS resulted in the establishment of a thriving "value-added" meteorological private sector. A recent edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, for example, contains advertisements for over 130 companies engaged in meteorological work. Although the nature of space weather will eventually elicit a private sector response that is different in specifics from that for terrestrial meteorology, the ultimate focus will remain the same: to provide commercial products and services that mitigate or eliminate negative environmental effects. Some operational agencies such as NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and Air Force Weather Agency are significantly and appropriately engaged in such transition. At some point, however, these agency entities must, themselves, transition to a commercial approach. Commercialization therefore seems the next logical step. However, commercial specification and forecast is still in its infancy. The goal then is to conduct early-stage exploratory work on this largely untested approach. Project Outcomes. Discusses the Intellectual Merti, Broader Impact, and Overall Outcomes. Intellectual Merit. In addition to pushing back the boundaries of knowledge, space physics research of the past three decades is also, eventually, put to use improving the functioning of society. This research investigated various space physics models to support the needs of spacecraft operators and spacecraft insurers. Broader Impact. The exploration combined the integrated-modeling expertise derived from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) and the business know-how of Wacari Group, a Boulder-based commercialization company. A partnership such as this is new to the space weather field of research and somewhat high-risk. However, if successful, the "payoff" will be a competitive advantage for the nation: more survivable spacecraft operation, more efficient satellite insurance coverage, and the beginnings of a competitive private sector focusing on providing the best space-weather products at the lowest possible cost. Overall Outcomes. The concept of commercializing space weather information (or intelligence) is one whose time has arrived. In the past ten years, work within the space weather community has focused on better descriptions of the physical phenomena that define the Sun-Earth connection and interactions, an admirable and long-term effort. Along the way, it is critical to provide better tools to those who need and would like to use the data for decision making. The 'payoff', implemented through an Upper Atmospheric Research Section SBIR project, would be a competitive advantage for the nation: more survivable spacecraft operation, more efficient satellite insurance coverage, and the beginnings of a competitive private sector focusing on providing the best space weather products at the lowest possible cost. At the beginning of this project, it was hoped that there might be a logical path to providing the civilian operator community with a solution. At present, with the exception of the LANL DREAM model, most models are more focused on capturing and understanding the physical dynamics of the radiation belts. The Dartmouth Model has potential for operator use although it is designed to provide a climatological picture of the radiation belts capturing its overall dynamics rather than dynamics at a specific spacecraft location. The LANL DREAM model takes steps toward operator needs. The ultimate goal is a model that approaches the problem from the operator's perspective, one designed to provide high-reliability, high-precision specification, forecast, and anomaly analysis in an MIS format.
