In the past, land use predictions have been based primarily on population and socioeconomic development scenarios, and have been provided to climate prediction models as an external driver. The role of climate as a major biophysical driver for land use changes has not been adequately considered. Using West Africa as an example, this project will address the overarching question of whether there is a strong need to include land use predictions as an integral component of Earth System Models. The objectives of the project are: (1) to predict future climate and land use considering the interaction between climate and land use; (2) to evaluate the roles of greenhouse gas emissions and land use in driving regional climate changes in West Africa; and (3) to understand the impacts of biophysical and socioeconomic factors on land use changes. Based on a proposed modeling framework that links a cascade of five models, i.e., a regional climate model, a dynamic vegetation model, a crop growth model, an agricultural economics model, and a land use allocation model, the principal investigators will study the impact of both socio-economic and biophysical factors on human land use. This project will shed insights into whether and to what extent, climate-land use interactions in earth system models influence predictions of future climate and future land use.
The broader impacts of this research are high. Climate change and its adverse impact on food security are a major concern for West African countries and international organizations. Results from this project will provide scientific foundations for food policy and targeted investment in climate change adaptation. In addition, this project will promote teaching and learning in a broader context, as well as increase the participation of underrepresented groups, especially women, in geosciences research.
This project supports a collaborative effort among three institutions including the University of Connecticut, Loyola Marymount University, and the International Food Policy Research Institute.
