Operational numerical forecast models tend to underforecast the deepening rate and the intensity of rapidly developing marine cyclones. Using the global spectral model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the principal investigator, Dr. S. L. Mullen, will conduct sensitivity experiments by varying the physics included in the model, degrading the accuracy of the initial conditions, and changing the model resolution. The results from this project should inform on the statistical significance of the results from previous studies of explosive cyclogenesis which mostly dealt with only one storm or one particular aspect of the numerical simulation.
