The question of the limits of predictability of the atmosphere is one of the more fundamental questions facing meteorologists. Most of the research performed in this area has emphasized predictability characteristics of large-scale atmospheric flows. Based on these earlier studies, pessimistic conclusions were drawn for the forecasting of localized weather events (e.g. heavy rainfall), termed mesoscale events by meteorologists. More recent work, however, has provided evidence that forecasting of mesoscale weather may not be as limited as originally suggested; however, not much research has been done in this area. Using a numerical model, the Principal Investigator will perform a number of experiments designed to address the question of predictability of mesoscale precipitation. Some of the tasks to be undertaken are to determine the variation of range of predictability of mesoscale precipitation with respect to temporal and spatial averaging; and to use the concepts of chaos theory and strange attractors to characterize the precipitation process.

Agency
National Science Foundation (NSF)
Institute
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (AGS)
Application #
9020832
Program Officer
Stephan P. Nelson
Project Start
Project End
Budget Start
1991-09-01
Budget End
1996-08-31
Support Year
Fiscal Year
1990
Total Cost
$343,450
Indirect Cost
Name
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Department
Type
DUNS #
City
Cambridge
State
MA
Country
United States
Zip Code
02139