Abstract ATM-9416701 Feldstein, Steven Pennsylvania State University Title: Low-Frequency Zonally-Averaged Flow Variability Studied with Models and Observations The primary objective of the proposed research is to investigate the role of the zonally averaged flow on atmospheric low frequency variability. A combined approach of examining the real observations, the outputs of idealized simple models and realistic complex global models is being adopted to achieve this goal. This approach can enhance our understanding of the fundamental dynamics of low frequency variability of the atmosphere. Details of dynamical mechanisms associated with the maintenance, onset and decay of both high and low zonal index phases will be examined. Regional teleconnection patterns and blocking and their relationship with zonal index will be studied. The role of SST in the interannual variability of the zonal index will also be investigated. Low frequency oscillations of the atmosphere are intimately related to medium and extended range forecasting. This research has potential for improving forecast models and in turn forecasts.
