9523616 Prinn Most policy analyses of the greenhouse gas issue do not consider the likely influence of local air pollution controls on global emissions, or on the evaluation of the cost of alternative greenhouse-gas control measures. This lack occurs in part because the coupled climate science and policy issue is a great analytical challenge by itself; it also occurs in part because many of the analytical models used for assessment of the greenhouse issue take account of CO2 only, or they use CO2 as a surrogate for the more complex system involving several greenhouse-relevant gases and aerosol precursors. Failure to consider the interaction between global and local aspects of anthropogenic emissions may prove to be a serious shortcoming in analyses of global climate change because these two aspects of environmental policy are linked in three important ways: through the chemistry of the atmosphere, through the technology of emissions control, and through the interaction of local pollution policies with greenhouse gas control measures. This research will explore methods and models for analyzing the interaction between policy choices regarding global climate change and likely developments in local air pollution control, and will include assessments of global climate change sources, policies, and impacts. Preliminary versions of the needed models and data will be developed and tested using the MIT Integrated Framework and MIT models of urban air pollution. This interdisciplinary task will deal with five main issues: A. Characterization, for inclusion in models of future emissions, of the control policies that may be applied to emissions-producing activities (e.g., Nox and CO control in automobiles). B. Modeling of air quality conditions in local urban metropoli in a way that is consistent with the prediction for larger regions in a global analysis framework. C. Calculation of the emissions that are effective at national/regional scale considering the photochemical aging that occurs to that portion of the emissions occurring in urban areas including the production of secondary pollutants like ozone and acid aerosols as the air is dispersed to national/regional scales. D. Valuation of the contributions of greenhouse gas control policies to local air quality and vice versa, in a way that can be integrated into assessments of net policy cost. E. Prediction of how the severity of local emissions control is likely to respond to increases over time in economic growth (and likely worsening of local conditions), so that this reaction can be included in long-term predictions of emissions of greenhouse-relevant gases. This proposal focuses on the first three steps in this methodological development. Research Task 1 is concerned with Point A; Task 2 involves research needed to develop methods for dealing with Point B; and Task 3 is concerned with the mapping in Point C. In research Task 4 these relationships will be tested using the MIT Integrated Framework and a plan will be prepared for subsequent stages of development of methods for integrating these components of emissions control policy. Task 1. Emissions Estimates and Control Functions. Task 2. Representation of Local Air Quality Conditions Task 3. Mapping Between Local Concentrations and Effective Regional Emissions. Task 4. Testing of Relations in the MIT Integrated Framework. The work will be carried out within the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The Co-Principal Investigators are Professors Henry D. Jacoby and Ronald G. Prinn, who are Co-Directors of the Program. Also serving as Co-Investigators are Professors Gregory McRae and Richard Eckaus. Each of the four are expert in one or another aspect of the interdisciplinapy work: Eckaus on the emissions forecasting, Jacoby on the emissions forecasts and integration of the MIT Framework, Prinn on the atmospheric chemistry, and McRae on the local air pollution modeling.
