Research would be undertaken to evaluate a six-dimensional state space model for the basic energy components of the night-side magnetosphere coupled to the ionosphere by region 1 currents. This model provides a physics based alternative to empirical forecasting techniques. The evaluation of this physics based model with involve (1) a critical comparison of the model results to data- based prediction filters, (2) couple the model to particle simulations, comparing the results to geomagnetic indices within the Bargatze event data set, and compare the model's nonlinear dynamical response to that of the magnetosphere as deduced from state space analysis of magnetosphere as deduced from state space analysis of magnetospheric variables.
