The overall goal of this research is to understand the processes responsible of extratropical cyclogenesis. The specific objectives of this project are to characterize the basic state flow within which upper tropospheric short waves evolve, to identify the disturbances antecedent to upper and lower tropospheric cyclogenesis and their relationship to the so-called singular vectors of the observed flow, and to understand the role of latent heat release associated with deep moist convection in the development of midlatitude upper tropospheric waves. The research will utilize data from the North American radiosonde and rawinsonde network, analysis and forecast fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational weather forecast models, and data from FASTEX (Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment) and from NORPEX (North Pacific Experiment). The NCAR limited area non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) will be employed to help elucidate the interactions between the basic state and the short wave precursors.
The results from this research should have practical application in improving short and medium range weather forecasts. In addition, they may provide some guidance in the deployment of adaptive observing systems for weather prediction.
