Life-cycle analysis (LCA) is an emerging foundation for investigating the environmental consequences of industrial systems on a holistic basis. LCA does not meaningfully incorporate models of buyer and seller behaviors that drive actual production and consumption and the subsequent environmental impact, however. LCA therefore has been applied predominantly to firm-specific engineering process improvement or to product design. As a result LCA has yet to meaningfully affect environmental policy making on a larger scale. This research project will build on the experience of two of the investigators, who were involved in the development of a decision-making model that combined economic incentives with environmental data to produce more varied and robust results than previously incorporated in LCA. This new project will improve the versatility of the model by incorporating agent-based modeling to study the environmental and economic implications of three technologically and economically diverse markets: shipping pallets, cell phone batteries, and municipal water delivery systems. Agent-based modeling will permit modeling of a more complex system with many decision-making "agents," and it will allow the different agents to have heterogeneous characteristics. Agents will be implemented as computer software objects that interact according to behavioral and environmental rules specified by the researcher. The choice of products to analyze in this project is motivated by their very different market structures and the variety of their environmental impacts. The shipping pallet market has many heterogeneous buyers and sellers, potentially exacerbating its environmental impact. The producer side of the cell phone market is highly concentrated, but there are many buyers. Competition for buyers has created rapid technological replacement cycles and equipment disposal long before the end of its useful life. Water delivery systems are heavily regulated and, as a result, are typically bilateral monopolies with important environmental consequences related to the negotiated delivery infrastructure.
By strengthening environmental analysis as a holistic decision-making tool, this project will improve decision making within the three resource-intensive industries described above, thereby reducing wood, electronic device, and water waste. The computational models and methods developed in the conduct of this project will be applicable to many other industries that have significant environmental impacts, such as packaging and personal computers. Findings will be presented at scientific meetings and in print, and the software tools that are developed will be made available to other researchers, industry, and government agencies. This project will enhance education in undergraduate and graduate studies by providing extensive interdisciplinary research experience for undergraduate students, through incorporation of improved modeling and assessment techniques in courses, and through an on-line toolkit that will provide access to the software tools and other materials for researchers and practitioners. An award resulting from the FY 2007 NSF-wide competition on Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) supports this project. All NSF directorates and offices are involved in the coordinated management of the HSD competition and the portfolio of HSD awards.
