The rapid and near ubiquitous decline in the world's glaciers has grave repercussions for many of the social and ecological systems that depend upon these critical hydrologic reservoirs for their freshwater needs. Tropical Andean glaciers are particularly sensitive to climate changes and represent critical hydrologic reservoirs in seasonally arid, highland regions in predominantly poor, developing nations, where sustained negative mass balance over recent decades has accompanied dramatic landscape changes. However, a lack of knowledge about the volume of glacial reservoirs and hydrological fluxes hampers researchers ability to assess the current impact of these melting glaciers. Interdisciplinary research is needed to integrate a clearer understanding of the magnitude of climate-induced changes to glacier-fed water supplies with assessments of human vulnerability to water scarcity to inform strategies for adaptation to and mitigation of increasingly uncertain and conflicted futures. This project will examine the complex nature of environmental change taking place across local and regional scales of analysis in the world's most glacierized tropical mountain range, the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, and evaluates how the consequences of these changes are linked to human decision-making and behavior. The specific research objectives of the project are to: 1) quantify changes in glacial volume; 2) evaluate the regional impact of glacier melt on seasonal and interannual water availability and quality; 3) assess human vulnerability to increasing hydrological variability due to glacier-recession; and 4) evaluate how changing household access to resources is contributing to livelihood adaptation and change. The investigators will integrate in situ observations with geospatial analyses, household surveys, key interviews, and focus groups in three representative tributary watersheds with different percent glacierization, variable hydrological characteristics and diverse livelihood pursuits to understand and measure hydrologic processes, calibrate hydrochemical mixing models, and evaluate human vulnerability and household livelihood adaptation and change. Analyses will be linked through descriptive and quantitative analytical procedures that focus on fluctuating hydrological resources and their importance for understanding both physical and human processes of change. GIS and remote sensing techniques will integrate the human and physical components and findings of the research, and extend analyses. Finally, the project features an innovative education program that integrates graduate research, public education and outreach in an internationally transdisciplinary context.
This research will increase the understanding of human and social dynamics and their relationship to hydrologic processes and glacial recession in tropical highlands, an area that is currently data-poor. The expected outcomes of this work include: 1) the generation of cutting-edge empirical data and theoretical insights into the current rate and magnitude of climate change-induced glacial recession, shifting hydrological processes and human livelihood vulnerability and adaptation; 2) the refinement of rigorous and transferable interdisciplinary research methods and information dissemination strategies that have the potential to address the complexities posed by the uncertainty and variability of global change processes; 3) the formation of enduring partnerships that illustrate the critical value of linking leading academic research with the on-the-ground capacities of conservation-focused civil society organizations; and 4) the generation of an array of effective site-specific educational outreach programs, capacity-building strategies and policy recommendations that will assist local people and governance institutions in their efforts to adapt to and mitigate the rapidly worsening impacts of climate change, glacial recession, and water scarcity on human societies.
