This project investigates the effects of wind and other "directional" factors that contribute to the spread of invasive organisms like insects. Most researchers who study insect dispersion discuss factors like wind direction and human transport, but these factors are rarely included in models because of their complexity and relative unpredictability. However, circular statistics calculated from wind data can be used to randomly select dispersal directions and distances. When repeated many times, these models produce probability maps showing the likelihood that invasive insects will move to a given location. Since direction is such an important element of dispersal, since current models fail to adequately account for directional spread, and since invasive species promise to be a problem for years to come, this research may be the most significant advance in species distribution models in recent years.
These maps will help land managers that combat detrimental invasive species focus their efforts in areas of greater risk, saving tax money as well as ecosystems and natural resources. While wind are the initial focus, the methods can also be applied to factors like transport along roadways, movement toward preferred environments, and other factors that push or pull organisms to new areas. The results of this research, including derived datasets, maps, and computer models, will be submitted to data.gov to ensure their accessibility by other researchers, will be explained through science articles, and will be shared with land managers, including National Parks Service personnel who are collaborating on the project. Over the three year period of this project, roughly 20 undergraduate students will participate in data collection and nearly 100 will assist in analyzing data during laboratory exercises during classes. Most of these students will pursue environmental careers using digital mapping technology, but many will become K-12 teachers who will share this experience with their students and thereby encourage them to pursue environmental science careers. The researcher is particularly committed to increasing female students' participation in this project, since they are underrepresented in this field nationwide.
