John M Harrison University of Florida The doctoral dissertation research will examine the occurrence and intensity of rainfall in the Meso-American region, using Costa Rica as a case study. A transect containing the majority of the meteorological stations will be constructed such that temporal and spatial variations in the precipitation patterns can be evaluated. The occurrence processes will be modeled as a Markov chain model, while the rainfall intensities will be evaluated by fitting probability distributions to the daily data. The effects of ENSO will be determined by correlating the parameters associated with the occurrence and intensity models with atmospheric indices such as the SOI and the NAO. The study will extend our knowledge of tropical rainfall processes.
