1331438 (Suh). This project will examine (1) the effects of rising shale gas production on the deployment of renewable and alternative energy technologies in the short and long run; and (2) the effect of potential policy measures, existing or new, on energy mix change under the presence of shale gas in the U.S. The work will concentrate on interactions between shale gas and alternative energies in the U.S. at both fine temporal and technological scales using engineering estimates and system dynamics (SD) models. This will allow testing a broad range of technology and policy scenarios. This project will produce a potentially transformative methodology for using system dynamics to integrate life-cycle assessment and scenario development for analyzing both the economic and environmental impacts of energy policies. Shale gas is expected to contribute about 50% of total natural gas supply in the U.S. by 2040. The abundance of domestically extracted, affordable fossil fuel can potentially affect deployment of renewable energy technologies in the U.S., which will, in turn, influence the nation's ability to meet other objectives such as reducing GHG emissions from energy. Understanding the interaction between the shale gas and renewable energy technologies in the U.S. energy market is therefore essential in designing appropriate policy interventions that lead to a desirable outcome. The results of the analysis can be used to envision policy options for climate mitigation and renewable energy future under the presence of shale oil. The data and the model to be built can also be used as an input to a parametric LCA model for quantifying environmental impacts of integrated system.
