This project aims to improve ice storm and hurricane preparedness and recovery for electric power distribution systems by building a set of interrelated mathematical models to better estimate future storm-related damages, and to support decisions that can minimize storm-related disruption, specifically the design of tree trimming policies and post-storm restoration procedures. The project will consist of four main steps. First, ice storm and hurricane hazard models will be developed and applied to predict the ice and wind loads placed on the system by ice storms and hurricanes, respectively. Second, statistical damage models will be developed to predict damage for ice storms and hurricanes in terms of characteristics of the storms, system inventory, and region. Third, a discrete event simulation model of the post-storm restoration process will be developed. Finally, two case studies will be conducted to investigate the cost-effectiveness of various alternative tree trimming policies, a costly and important aspect of maintaining the electric power distribution system, and to examine the relative effectiveness of alternative post-storm restoration procedures.
The investigators will collaborate with 4 large power companies on this research (Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, New York State Electric & Gas, and Progress Energy). The companies, which will provide data and consultation about system operations, collectively have had considerable recent experience with ice storms and hurricanes, and are at a turning point in terms of their desire and ability to collect and make use of better outage, damage, and other data. Because any one company has limited experience with storms, pooling the data and expertise of these 4 companies offers a unique opportunity for the investigators to gain insights into the response of the electric power distribution system to storms. The collaboration will also facilitate dissemination of results.
This study will benefit all users of electric power by helping utility companies reduce the frequency and duration of power outages through better preparedness and recovery. Negative societal impacts of power outages include economic loss; business interruption; general inconvenience; irreversible loss of electronic data and perishable goods; health impacts (e.g., if power outages result in loss of heating); secondary interruptions of water supply, traffic signaling, and other infrastructure systems. As society's dependence on and expectation of uninterrupted electric power increases, it becomes more and more critical to reduce these effects. Through an improved understanding of storm impacts on power systems, and an improved ability to manage them with more efficient outage prediction, tree trimming, and restoration, this study will contribute significantly to that worthwhile goal.
The proposed methodology will also advance the state-of-the-art in natural hazard risk analysis for infrastructure systems. Most previous research on lifeline risk analysis has focused on earthquakes, leaving many unanswered questions about the most effective way to prepare for and recover from major ice storms and hurricanes. Lessons learned and methods developed in this study may be extendable to other lifelines in the future.
